A large trough of low pressure is set up over the east and within this trough a smaller disturbance aloft is now over the Midwest. This disturbance will shoot east and move into central New York late tonight and into Monday. We’re seeing some activity with this system now, and have kept our chances for rain/storms at a 40% chance. In terms of timing, several of our models have rain moved east of Syracuse by Monday afternoon.
We’re keeping in a slight chance for rain on Tuesday, although the threat for rain has been diminishing. Drier air moves in behind Monday’s rain, and we should have a good amount of sunshine with some clouds for Tuesday. High pressure builds in over the east and we should be dry for much of the middle of the week.
Jet stream winds aloft will start to move back north into Canada. That means temperatures in central New York will warm back in the 80s just in time for the start of the New York State Fair next Thursday.