It has been a bit dry recently here in Syracuse. While we are only about half an inch below normal for the month of May that only tells part of the story. Syracuse has only had measurable rain on 2 of the last 16 days and given the sunny weather during much of that time there has been a great deal of evaporation going on. The bottom line: we could use some rain and it looks like we are going to get it.
Looking at the weather map Monday morning there are two fronts that we are keying in on currently. One front moved through central New York Sunday and is now down over the Virginias and stretches west into the Ohio Valley. A second, more subtle front, moved through Monday afternoon and brought a reinforcing shot of cooler air to the region. That cooler air lead to some patchy frost last night. This second front is still close to us and it is key to the forecast later today and tonight.
Meanwhile, we continue to track a weak area of low pressure slowly moving north through Missouri. Counterclockwise winds around this low have transported lots of tropical moisture into the Eastern part of the United States. That is, except, central New York and the Northeast. Well, that moisture will finally make it north late this afternoon and there should be a few showers close to Syracuse just before sunset this evening. This moisture should interact with that second front we mentioned above and the showers should transition into a steady rain for a time tonight. The rain could come down hard and there may even be some thunder. Rainfall tonight of .75” to an inch is possible tonight with some locally higher amounts.
After tonight we have an unsettled pattern that will carry us through Friday. There will be showers from time to time but we are becoming more and more suspicious that our steadiest rain may occur Tuesday night. You see, later tonight, that front will begin to shift to our north barely making it into southern Canada. That will likely be the area for some very heavy rain the next few days. So there is the basic set up for the mid to late week. More details to come the next few days
