Colder air has moved back into central New York today and we are dealing with more seasonable temperatures. West winds coming across Lake Ontario mean the possibility of some lake effect snow showers the rest of the day into tonight but the conditions are far from ideal. With conditions only marginal for lake effect snow the rest of the day and temperatures expected to be above freezing, accumulations should be held in check, say 2” or less. However, higher elevations north of Syracuse (Tug Hill) may see upwards of 1-4” of new snow by early evening. Snow showers and flurries should linger into tonight and perhaps early tomorrow. While additional accumulations are quite possible, amounts should be on the light side.
Meanwhile, low pressure is forecast to organize over the Deep South and Southeast, eventually moving to Washington D.C. by early evening tomorrow and eventually off the Mid-Atlantic Coast tomorrow night. This system will miss our region tomorrow, but we’ll keep a sharp weather eye on model trends just in case. Instead, high pressure will be in control of our weather as it’s forecast to take residence over New England by tomorrow evening, thus, supplying Central New York with a decent mid-February day. High pressure should manage to give the region another nice day Thursday as temperatures reach into the 40s.
By Friday, there are indications a cold front may bring a threat for snow showers to the region. This front looks like it will signal a change to much colder weather for the weekend with high temperatures only in the 20s. Our confidence is fairly high that we will see a return to cold temperatures this weekend. Conversely, what is still up in the air is whether we will get a winter storm to form along the East Coast during the weekend and whether it would impact us here in central New York. There has been some disagreement from our computer models about how this might unfold over the past few days. However, even if we remain too far west of any possible storm, it’s likely the colder air will trigger at least some lake effect snow across the area during the weekend. In short, you’ll want to check back with us if you have weekend plans.