So far it is a quiet day across central New York. However, the cold front that came through yesterday is trying to move back as a warm front. Later today and tonight it will serve as the focus for a few scattered showers and thunderstorms.
By tomorrow morning, the low pressure and its associated cold front are expected to be located between Detroit and Buffalo with the cold front extending south and southwest from its center. Strong southerly winds will overspread Central New York ahead of the low and cold front, importing warmth and moisture into the region. Indications are that much of Saturday through to early afternoon should be mainly dry. However, as low pressure moves to a location just north of Lake Ontario by early afternoon, showers and thunderstorms will erupt along its trailing cold front, which will extend south and southwest from its center.
The concern is that with the abundant amount of wind energy in the atmosphere, wind speeds on the order of 60-75 mph in the lowest 10,000 feet, thunderstorms may tap into that wind energy and transport it to the ground to create damaging wind gusts. Additionally, with humid air around torrential downpours will be a distinct possibility.
Much cooler air will filter in behind the storm system setting the stage for a much cooler Sunday and Monday. With that cooler air coming over Lake Ontario (temperatures still in the 70s) the end result will be lake effect rain showers. Additionally, should the high temperature fail to hit 70, it would mark the first time that has happened in three months!!
However, the cooler air at the end of the weekend and early next week is just a taste of fall. The center of the cooler air mass is an area of high pressure that will settle over us Tuesday then slowly shift to our east come midweek. This air mass will modify and warm due to plenty of sunshine then clockwise winds on the backside of the high will warm us further. We could be back close to 80 by that time.