High pressure controlled the weather across central New York today with some sunshine and seasonable temperature. That system will quickly move east and allow the next weather system, a cold front, to impact our weather.
The cold front is currently over the Midwest and by tomorrow morning it will move into western New York. Ahead of the front, our winds will turn into the southwest so even though we won’t have much sunshine we will have a chance to warm up. The timing of the front would bring it through during the middle of the afternoon and that means we think there will be some showers around here during that time.
A shot of cold air will move in tomorrow night and Thursday. It still looks like about a 12-18 hour window where favorable conditions for lake effect rain showers will exist. In fact, the air may be cold enough for graupel to fall (technically snow, but looks more like ice pellets). Right now it looks as though areas near and north of the Thruway will stand the best chance for lake effect precipitation during this time.
As high pressure builds in from the west during Thursday, any lake effect showers will end before midday with partial sun thereafter. The pace of weather systems in this part of the country is fairly quick so, as a result, another cold front is forecast to move through the region late Thursday night and/or early Friday morning. There will be an even shorter window of opportunity for some lake effect rain showers once the front moves through. High pressure is forecast to move in fairly quickly behind the front Friday afternoon which will make for a pretty unfavorable set up for lake effect (drier, sinking air)
This are of high pressure will settle right over central New York Friday night. If your garden managed to escape frost this morning, it’s unlikely the same will occur Saturday morning as a widespread killing frost or freeze is a good bet. Strong southwest winds will bring much warmer air as well as the threat for showers Sunday.