We’re still keeping an eye on a cold front in western New York, which has been trying in vain to push into our area. Since the bulk of the rain hasn’t been able to make it in, what we’re left with is spotty to scattered showers through Sunday afternoon and cooler temperatures in the mid to high 50s.
As Sandy moves north, it will eventually merge with the aforementioned cold front and its associated upper level trough/cold pool. Typically when this occurs, the result is one large and very intense low pressure or storm. Confidence is still high that this resultant storm (what is left of Sandy) will come ashore along the East Coast early next week. Our computer models have come into increasing agreement that the most likely scenario is for the storm to make landfall late Monday night/early Tuesday morning, likely in southern or central New Jersey.
Naturally, this will have major implications on where the worst rain and wind occur. Historical impacts are a distinct possibility along portions of the East Coast as storm surge up to 10 feet along the coast will coincide with astronomically high tides early this week. The most severe impacts (strongest wind, coastal flooding, widespread power outages, and beach erosion) are expected along the Eastern Seaboard.
This isn’t just a coastal system. Here in Central New York we are still at risk for a period of heavy rain along with some strong winds. It’s not out of the question that localized flooding develops, especially if heavy rain persists. Right now, a High Wind Warning and a Flood Watch is in effect for most of central New York. The expected outcome is that we could see gusts nearing 60mph on Monday and Tuesday, especially in areas south of Lake Ontario and in high elevations. Rainfall accumulations could reach up to 5 inches by the end of the work week, making flooding a possibility around lakes, streams, or any poor drainage area.
While the greatest impacts from Sandy will come early in the week, we will likely have to deal with Sandy (at least in a weakened form) for much of the week. A big blocking high pressure up over the north Atlantic and Greenland is serving as a gigantic roadblock over this part of the Northern hemisphere. That means once Sandy makes landfall it won’t be in any hurry to move out of the Northeast. We are keeping cloudy cool and showery weather in the forecast through the end of next week.