Here’s what we are up against for the upcoming week. Monday is relatively quiet. We are actually in between systems. Sunday evening’s rain is off to our east and some temporary drying is going on over us this morning. Meanwhile, a storm in the upper atmosphere is forming over the upper Great Lakes. It’s not a strong storm but it is large and will be slow moving. It’s dropping southeast and over the next couple of days it will not only impact the Great Lakes but parts of the Ohio Valley and the Northeast as well.
In terms of day to day weather, it looks like Tuesday and Wednesday will be our wettest days as this upper low will be closest to us. By Thursday and Friday it looks like this low will begin to weaken and shift north. Even though the main low is gone we are still under the influence of a trough of low pressure aloft. It means we aren’t done with showers but they will become more scattered in nature.
Keep in mind that even though the pattern over us this week and much of June has not been ideal for us (a degree below in temperature, over 4” of rain) we have fared a bit better than our neighbors to the east. New York City is now over 9” of rain for the month and will end up about 4 degrees below normal. It has rained on 20 days this month in Boston and their average temperature will be closer to 4 and a half degrees below normal.
Of course the next question is when can we break out of this pattern (and more than a few days like what happened this week). I’m not encouraged by what I see through the middle of next week. I have been looking at not only the GFS and European computer model output but also at their ensembles and they all hold onto the trough (ie cooler weather) into early to mid next week. Some of the more observant viewers may point out that the operational GFS (the main GFS) run from last night is advertising a warm up mid next week. However that goes against what all its ensemble members are saying at this point so I’m not going to get excited about that potential warm up just yet.
