One more day of unseasonably mild weather is tap for Central New York today as a very warm air mass stays over us. By later today night and tomorrow a cold front will approach the region and stall out. We are still thinking there will be a few showers around tomorrow, especially west of Syracuse.
Thereafter, it gets complicated.
We continue to track hurricane Sandy today. As Sandy moves north, it will eventually merge with a separate system, the aforementioned cold front and its associated upper level trough/cold pool. Typically when this occurs, the result is one large and very intense low pressure or storm. Confidence is still high that this resultant storm (what is left of Sandy) will come ashore along the East Coast early next week but there are still questions as to exactly where. Roughly 3-4 days before landfall the storm could hit anywhere from the Mid Atlantic up to southern New England.
Naturally, this will have major implications on where the worst rain and wind occur. Historical impacts are a distinct possibility along portions of the East Coast as the storms arrival will coincide with astronomically high tides early next week. The most severe impacts (strongest wind, coastal flooding, widespread power outages, and beach erosion) are expected along the Eastern Seaboard somewhere between New England and the Mid-Atlantic regions. Even here in Central New York we run the risk for moderate to heavy rain along with some strong winds. It’s not out of the question that localized flooding develops, especially if heavy rain persists. Right now, we’re targeting either Monday or Tuesday as the most likely time frame for the greatest impacts from this system.
Once we can narrow down the storm track further we will have a better handle on the exact details of our weather early next week. Stay tuned over the next few days for updates.