On this morning’s weather map, a warm front is slicing right through Central New York and is forecast to lift farther northeast and away from the area. Thus, allowing for unseasonably warm air to move into the region.
Meanwhile, a cold front is evident from the far western Great Lakes south through to the south-central Plain States. This cold front, the leading edge to colder air, is forecast to move east and be positioned just west of the I-81 corridor by Friday evening. Consequently, Central New Yorkers will be able to enjoy warm weather today and tomorrow.
Thereafter, it gets complicated.
Right now, the latest data points to the front stalling over the region Saturday, resulting in more clouds along with the threat for showers…especially west of Syracuse. As this is ongoing, Hurricane Sandy will be tracking north to northeast through the Bahamas and over the Gulf Stream. As Sandy moves north, it will eventually merge with a separate system, the aforementioned cold front and its associated upper level trough/cold pool. Typically when this occurs, the result is one large and very intense low pressure or storm. While computer models have generally agreed upon merging the two systems and producing one very intense storm, there has been some disagreement as to where it travels, more specifically, exactly where on the coast the storm moves onshore.
Naturally, this will have major implications on where the worst rain and wind occur. And while the most severe impacts (strongest wind and coastal flooding) are expected along the Eastern Seaboard, even here in Central New York we run the risk for moderate to heavy rain along with some strong winds. Right now, we’re targeting early next week as the most likely time frame for the most significant impacts from this system.
Once we can narrow that down the storm track we will have a better handle on the exact details of our weather early next week. Stay tuned over the next few days for updates.