The weather in central New York over the next couple of days is going to be dominated by what happens to a stalled front over the south part of New York. Through Wednesday, central New York will be on the north side of the front so our temperatures will generally remain in the upper 50s to near 60. Rain Tuesday was enhanced by a jet stream disturbance moving east along the front. Since that ingredient will be lacking Wednesday, we think any rain will be more scattered in nature. In spite of clouds Wednesday, it should end up being a drier day.
By Thursday morning at the latest that stalled front will be on the move to our north as a warm front. That will turn our winds into the south-southwest and we will start to import some very warm air into the region. That breeze and sunshine both Thursday and Friday should boost us into the 70s. Although those temperatures will be well above normal for this time of year they will likely come up short of the record highs.
There are still some questions as to when our next front, a cold front, moves through Central New York. There are signs that the front may not come through until Sunday (at the earliest) so we are going to keep with the above normal temperatures for the start of the weekend.
Complicating matters is the presence of Tropical Storm Sandy which is presently located south of Jamaica. Sandy is forecast to strengthen into a hurricane as it moves north over Jamaica and eastern Cuba and eventually over the Bahamas early this weekend.
Thereafter, it’s unclear where Sandy moves. There are still are a number of computer models (but not all) that take what is left of Sandy along the East Coast early next week and combine it with jet stream energy with a trough of low pressure to produce a very large and powerful storm. This scenario is still six or seven days away and the computer models cans still be a bit fickle this far out in time so nothing is set in stone just yet.
Exactly how this system moves and how it may, or may not, interact with the aforementioned trough will play a large role as to what happens in the region Sunday and beyond. In short, future forecasts may change so you’ll want to check back for updates.
