On this morning’s weather map, a tight pressure gradient (change in air pressure over distance) is evident over the region. This as resulted in brisk winds over the region this morning, in fact, we expect windy conditions to persist throughout the day.
The wind will mean milder temperatures today will be offset with modestly low wind chill temperatures (in the 15 to 25 degree range). Additionally, the brisk westerly wind will help scoop moisture up off Lake Ontario and drop it in the form of lake effect/enhanced snow for areas east of Lake Ontario. Aiding the snow potential is a trough of low pressure, or a cold front, which is forecast to drop southeast from Canada and into the region. All in all, several inches of new snow may fall today east of Lake Ontario, especially over the Tug Hill area.
Farther south, for the rest of CNY there should be at least some limited sun this morning before cloud cover associated with the aforementioned system arrives. Later this afternoon, flurries and snow showers will become more likely in the immediate Central New York area. The threat for snow showers will continue tonight as the system closes in on the region and moisture from Lake Ontario arrives. Most of the region may see a fresh coating to an inch or two tonight.
After some leftover snow showers tomorrow morning, we should find some sun by afternoon as temperatures hold steady or even fall, especially to the north.
A weak weather system will move through the area Sunday with another round of snow showers or even steadier light snow possible. After that, high pressure will build in from the west and our weather will become quiet early next week. There is some debate as to whether or not a brief shot of cold air will move in Sunday night and Monday. So be aware, upcoming forecast may change.
It still seems to be a good bet that we will warm up toward the middle of the week but the real question is how quickly moisture (and rain) returns to Central New York and the Northeast. Some of our computer models bring wet weather in here as early as Wednesday, but one model that tends to do better in the longer term holds rain off until Thursday. We are leaning toward that solution and we will keep our weather dry until Thursday.