On this morning’s weather map, high pressure is evident over much of the eastern United States with a cold front and strengthening area of low pressure positioned over the central Plain States. Between now and the end of the week, high pressure is forecast to shift off the East Coast as the aforementioned storm system moves east. In response to the movement of these weather systems, winds will increase from the south later today and especially tomorrow. As a result, warmer air will move into the region this afternoon and stick around through to Friday.
In addition to the warmth will be moisture. Right now, it looks as though our greatest threat for rain will be with us Thursday night as the front closes in on the region. What happens thereafter is unclear. Some computer models allow for drier air to move into Central New York Friday which would result in a pretty nice day. However, other computer models show a slower moving front and additional area(s) of low pressure developing along the boundary. This scenario would result in rain for much of the day Friday. For now, we’ll keep with the shower threat Friday, but keep in mind that later forecasts may be upgraded or downgraded.
We are pretty confident that the front will be moving more quickly than its associated area of low pressure. In fact, the center of the low is forecast to remain over the Mid-West and western Great Lakes region through at least Friday morning. This low, both at the surface and in the upper levels, will move through the region this weekend, especially Saturday. As a result, we’ll keep the threat for showers in the forecast, as well as seasonably cool temperatures. Looking ahead, a return to milder and dry weather looks to arrive early next week.