The passage of a cold front on Friday has left us with a steady influx of cold, Canadian air over a relatively warm Lake Ontario. As a result, lake effect snow showers have been a large presence in central New York through the weekend. We’re not expecting the band of snow to let up before Tuesday afternoon.
For the rest of Sunday night, the heaviest snow will be north of Syracuse and east of Lake Ontario. Winds are mainly out of the west/southwest, so the airflow is directly across the longest fetch of the lake. This translates into a good setup for heavy snowfall over Oswego, Oneida, and Lewis counties. The wind should shift just a tad bit more into the southwest, which should lift the band and allow Jefferson County to see more of the action tonight as well.
The rest of us (Thruway and south) are also experiencing some snowfall, although not quite as heavy. A disturbance passing over us in the upper levels of the atmosphere is igniting snow showers that should let up through the overnight.
Come Monday morning, the band of lake effect snow will begin dropping southward. The greatest snowfall on Monday should occur mainly east/southeast of Lake Ontario. For most, 1-3” additional inches are possible with 3-6” east of the lake. The Tug Hill could see 10+" by Monday evening. Snow becomes more widespread Monday night into Tuesday morning and afternoon as we watch a system pass by just within arms reach to our south. High pressure will try to build in later on Tuesday, which should help to cut off the lake effect snow.
Overall, the week ahead is looking to be a rather cold one with slight chances for snow nearly every day as several disturbances roll through and conditions remain favorable for lake effect. Heading into next weekend, warmer air should roll in from the south and we’ll be back to milder temperatures in the mid 40s to start December.
