Quite the change is in store- while we’ve been near 40° the past few days, colder weekend air will drop the thermometer below freezing through the weekend. The first blast of cold air arrives today as a weak cold front imports chillier temps that will be in the low to mid 20s through much of Saturday.
Winds today will mainly be out of the north/northwest. While that’s typically a favorable set up for lake effect snow, it looks as though the winds may be just too northerly and the air just too dry for anything significant to materialize. A few flurries and even a possible light snow shower will be around during the morning, but we’re expecting that as the winds become more northerly the drier air should allow for some sunshine to come out.
The most winter-like day of the weekend will come on Sunday. Low pressure (which we’ve touched upon in this discussion during the week) will form off the New England coast and rapidly strengthen as it heads up into the Canadian Maritimes (A Blizzard Watch is up for Downeast Maine!). Although this storm won’t impact us directly, it will still influence our weather. As the storm strengthens, the winds over us will pick up. That will yank a reinforcing push of cold air in over us to end the weekend. That will combine with temperatures in the teens to cause our wind chills to drop below zero at times. As winds over us shift from northerly in the morning to northwesterly in the afternoon, lake effect snow will become better organized. The best chance for accumulating lake effect snow will come later Sunday afternoon into the evening.
The shot of cold air for the weekend should begin to exit our region by Monday afternoon as high temperatures return to the mid or upper 20s…still below average but a 10 degree improvement upon Sunday. A storm system is forecast to take aim on the region Tuesday. Exactly how this storm track will have a large role as to what we see with regards to precipitation type. For now, we’ll call for rain and/or snow; however, we should have a better handle on what falls by Sunday or Monday. More snow showers and lake effect is possible behind the system for Wednesday.