High pressure (responsible for our nice weather the last few days) will slowly loosen its grip on central New York. It looks like we squeeze out one more real nice day tomorrow with plenty of sunshine and temperatures again well above normal. Enjoy tomorrow because there is change on the horizon.
All week we’ve talked about uncertainty in the weekend forecast. In just the last two days the computer models we use have changed their tune switching the best chance of rain from Sunday to Friday afternoon. Here is what’s happening. We’ve watching the evolution of a disturbance in the jet stream winds aloft. It will begin to drop into the Great Lakes over the next 24 hours. Instead of taking its time, this disturbance now looks like it will race east and track north of us Friday night. Down at the ground, a cold front will accompany this disturbance and move through central New York late in the day. This means there will be showers and even a few thunderstorms by Friday afternoon.
With the faster movement of everything, our weekend weather is looking better, albeit a bit cooler. Since this cooler air will be travelling over a warm Lake Ontario we are going to respect the potential for a bit of lake effect showers early Saturday. The set up isn’t the best so we are going to keep the chances low for now.
Outside of this lake effect our weather over the weekend will be dry but feel a bit fall-ish as a cool area of high pressure builds into central New York. Temperatures may not climb out of the 60s both Saturday and Sunday.
A nice day Monday will be followed by another cold front Tuesday with more showers and thunderstorms.