On this morning’s weather map, high pressure is centered over far northeastern Maine with low pressure positioned along the Missouri and Arkansas boarder. Over the next 24 hours, high pressure is forecast to only slowly move northeast to near the mouth of the St. Lawrence River. Meanwhile, the low to our southwest is forecast to undergo a transition from a single low center to a double-barrel and should extend from Ohio to northern Maryland by early tomorrow.
Even though low pressure is still quite a ways from us, the clouds shield extends well out ahead of the storm and will move over central New York during the afternoon. It still looks like a wintry mix of precipitation will develop over us toward the end of the evening. The forecast challenge with this particular storm is temperatures at the ground through up through to the lower atmosphere. The temperature is so crucial because that will determine what will fall from the sky. As it stands now, higher elevations as well as areas northeast of Syracuse will have the greatest chance for accumulating snow tonight along with snow persisting into tomorrow. Lower elevations will have the greatest chance for rain and lowest chance for snow. Still, by tomorrow morning a slushy coating to inch or two may be on the ground, however, greater amounts are possible over the hills. Right now, rain or a rain/snow mix looks to be the most likely outcome tomorrow for lower elevations, with again, snow most likely higher up.
Another facet to the weather will be the wind. Winds will increase from the east and east-southeast tonight and tomorrow. Whilst breezy conditions are likely for the entire region during this time frame, down right windy conditions is expected over the higher elevations, especially over 1000 feet where wind gusts past 50 mph are possible.
By Thursday, both storms are forecast to more-or-less consolidate into one as it slowly moves through the Northeast. Eventually enough colder air should work back into the region to allow for mainly snow showers to fall at all elevations. Even colder air is forecast to arrive late in the week and especially over the weekend. In fact, we may struggle to approach 30 degrees for daytime high temperatures this weekend. Along with the below average temperatures we expect plenty of clouds and the threat for flurries or snow showers.