There may be a spotty shower tonight and early Saturday morning, but it will be mainly warm and humid with overnight lows in the upper 60s. Saturday morning will be the driest part of the day, with rain coming in during the afternoon.
By Saturday morning, an area of low pressure and its associated cold front are expected to be located between Detroit and Buffalo. Southerly winds will overspread Central New York ahead of the low and cold front, importing warmth and moisture into the region. Indications are that much of Saturday through to early afternoon should be mainly dry. However, as low pressure moves to a location just north of Lake Ontario by early afternoon, showers and thunderstorms will erupt along its trailing cold front, which will extend south and southwest from its center.
The concern is that with the abundant amount of wind energy in the atmosphere, wind speeds on the order of 60-75 mph in the lowest 10,000 feet, thunderstorms may tap into that wind energy and transport it to the ground to create damaging wind gusts. Additionally, with humid air around torrential downpours will be a distinct possibility. We know the ingredients for strong thunderstorms are coming together Saturday afternoon over CNY, we just don’t know yet exactly where the storms will fire up. Be sure to check Live Doppler 9 frequently through the day to stay on top of when and where the storms fire up.
Much cooler air will filter in behind the storm system setting the stage for a much cooler Sunday and Monday. With that cooler air coming over Lake Ontario (temperatures still in the 70s) the end result will be lake effect rain showers. Additionally, should the high temperature fail to hit 70, it would mark the first time that has happened in three months!!
However, the cooler air at the end of the weekend and early next week is just a taste of fall. The center of the cooler air mass is an area of high pressure that will settle over us Tuesday then slowly shift to our east come midweek. This air mass will modify and warm due to plenty of sunshine then clockwise winds on the backside of the high will warm us further. We could be back close to 80 by that time.