We’re still keeping an eye on the remnants of hurricane Isaac which have been meandering across the Ohio Valley. Over the next 24 hours the rain surrounding the low pressure center will lift into the northeast, bringing some much needed rain to central New York.
Ahead of this low, our winds have been out of the southeast so we are already importing moisture from the Atlantic Ocean. With the remnants of Isaac getting closer to us we should stay on the humid side. It looks like showers and storms will become more numerous by close to sunset as Isaac moves closer.
In terms of rainfall amounts, the computer models have been displaying a wide range of variability. The latest information we seen points to rainfall totals of an inch to 2 inches possible in central New York through tonight while the area of heaviest rain (2” plus) falls across northern New York. Still, a small shift in the path of the low will have a big impact on rain totals so stay tuned.
As the low moves east of the region Wednesday morning, showers will come to an end. Winds will also shift into the northeast and northwest which will bring drier air into the region. Consequently, we should find improving weather Wednesday afternoon. Another system, a cold front, is forecast to arrive late Thursday. Ahead of the cold front, a surge of warm air will move into Central New York. As the cold front arrives, with the warm air in place, scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible.
Things look a bit unsettled for the weekend. Thursday’s cold front will stall not too far to our south. Meanwhile, a storm system in the upper atmosphere will form somewhere over either the Ohio or Tennessee Valley. The counterclockwise flow around this low will bring moisture back north where it will interact with the stalled front. The confidence in the details is still low at this point but plan on at least scattered showers and thunderstorms from Saturday into Monday next week.