A cold front has now moved into western New York with showers. That front will move into central New York later this afternoon so from 3pm through roughly sunset we are all at risk for showers. The showers will quickly knock our temperatures down by about 10 degrees.
A shot of cold air will move in tonight and Thursday behind the cold front. It still looks like about a 12-18 hour window where favorable conditions for lake effect rain showers will exist. There could even be some thunder. In fact, the air may be cold enough for graupel to fall (technically snow, but looks more like ice pellets). Right now it looks as though areas near and north of the Thruway will stand the best chance for lake effect precipitation during this time.
As high pressure builds in from the west during Thursday, any lake effect showers will end before midday with partial sun thereafter. The pace of weather systems in this part of the country is fairly quick so, as a result, another cold front is forecast to move through the region late Thursday night and/or early Friday morning. There will be an even shorter window of opportunity for some lake effect rain showers once the front moves through. High pressure is forecast to move in fairly quickly behind the front Friday afternoon which will make for a pretty unfavorable set up for lake effect (drier, sinking air)
This are of high pressure will settle right over central New York Friday night. If your garden managed to escape frost this morning, it’s unlikely the same will occur Saturday morning as a widespread killing frost or freeze is a good bet. Strong southwest winds will bring much warmer air as well as the threat for showers Sunday.