Low pressure tracking to the Jersey shore this midday has caused light snow to fall across central New York. The low is moving away from us so we expect the snow to come to an end early this afternoon. There will be little if any additional accumulation. We are watching some dry air moving over the west end of Lake Ontario so it is not out of the question that there could be some sunshine along the south shore of the lake very late in the day.
Once the low tracks east off into the Atlantic, our focus will shift to the arrival of a shot of arctic air. The leading edge to this colder air will be a cold front that will move through the region early in the day Thursday. Even though we have a high temperature near 30 degrees it looks like that will be reached early in the day. Our temperatures are likely to drop through the 20s. While we do expect some snow with this change to colder weather, at this point, it doesn’t look like we would see anything significant.
The first batch of arctic air won’t last long. By Friday afternoon, the arctic air will be pulling out of Central New York. Winds turning into the southwest by Saturday will mean even milder air to star the weekend. We could be near 40 degrees to start the weekend.
Even while we are briefly warming, a new surge of arctic air will be pooling over southern Canada early in the weekend and will dive southeast and mean a change in our weather before the end of the weekend. Early indications point to the change occurring sometime on Sunday as low pressure and a second arctic cold front close in on the region. Again, it’s early but if current indications hold, Sunday may very well be a day of transition to bitterly cold air (the coldest of the season) that may be with us much of next week. We’ll also need to consider the prospect for lake effect snow next week, however, it’s too early to pin point where lake effect may fall. We’ll certainly keep you posted.