High pressure to our northeast is drifting eastward, keeping us quiet with sun and clouds through the afternoon. As it shifts away, a pair of cold fronts over the Lower Great Lakes and Upper Plains will start to edge eastward. We’ll see clouds increase late in the afternoon as the cold fronts advance, and eventually a few rain and snow showers. If you do have evening plans celebrating Valentine’s Day, we’re not expecting anything significant to fall.
The weather map Friday morning should feature the first of the pair of cold fronts right over the immediate CNY region with the second cold front not too far behind slicing from the Great Lakes south through the Upper Mid-West. It’s quite reasonable that Central New York will be between the two fronts for much of the day. Meaning while a few passing rain or snow showers will be around, much of the day should be dry, and overall, a decent way to end the work week.
Eventually, the second cold front should pass through the region Friday night allowing for sharply colder air to move into the region. Unfortunately, there are some discrepancies as how winds will align this weekend. Naturally, this has implications on how lake effect snow will play out. Some computer models suggest Saturday will feature the greatest threat for lake effect snow, others suggest Sunday.
Either way, lake effect flurries and squalls will be around the region this weekend as temperatures return to below normal values. In fact, high temperatures on Sunday may struggle to reach the middle or upper teens!
The shot of cold air for the weekend is just a two day or so affair as by Monday, our temperatures will be warming. The next approaching area of low pressure and frontal system will put our winds into the south and keep us mild into Tuesday which means when the next round of precipitation arrives the air will be borderline for rain or snow.