A low pressure system is currently centered over the Great Lakes with its associated warm front extending outwards through western New York, slicing through Pennsylvania. Winds ahead of the front are coming out of the east/southeast, bringing in mild and moist air- just enough to allow for spotty showers to continue through tonight. As the storm system begins to sag southward, we expect only a few light showers for most of Monday along with mild temperatures near 50°.
Late Monday afternoon, we’ll watch as the low starts to lift back to the north, introducing heavier rain through Monday night and Tuesday. This should initially keep us mild with rain the likely precipitation type. By later in the day, however, a secondary low will try to form somewhere near the southern New England coast. If that were to happen we could see a change in our precipitation from rain to snow.
As the low departs to the Northeast through Wednesday, winds begin to shift out of the northwest. As is typical of late fall/early winter, colder air coming across a relatively warm lake provides a set up for lake effect snowfall. In this case though, drier air aloft may prevent much snow from falling. This is something we’ll be keeping an eye on over the next few days.