I know I said over the weekend I’d be looking more closely at our long, long range outlook (mid to late June) but with our weather becoming a bit more active this week I thought I would address the short term first.
Monday’s pretty quiet. The cold front that came through central New York Saturday is stalled out near the Mason/Dixon line. This front will begin to move north today and should be close to the New York/Pennsylvania. Because it will take that long to get close to us it looks like Monday will be rain-free until late in the day. Watch for a few showers to pop up over the Finger Lakes late in the afternoon then drift close to Syracuse close to sunset.
As this front moves through central New York Monday night we expect showers and thunderstorms.
With the warm front to our north Tuesday morning we are in a warm sector but how ‘clean’ will it be. What do we mean by clean? Sometimes we get into a warm and humid air mass but sometimes it is accompanied by quite a bit of cloud cover. That’s the biggest variable in tomorrow’s forecast. If we are able to break through cloud cover 1) we will end up warmer than the 76 we have now (the potential is there for low 80s) and 2) the atmosphere becomes more primed for strong to even severe thunderstorms. The winds aloft Tuesday aren’t unusually strong but that heating would be enough to get the strong storms going. At this time Tuesday morning we will be watching the visible satellite picture closely to see if we have a chance to get any of that sun.
The Storm Prediction Center has taken note of that uncertainty and, as of Monday morning, it has yet to put central New York in a slight risk for severe thunderstorms. However, that “See Text” area over us is a sign they will be monitoring us very closely Tuesday.
