We are already dealing with gusty winds here in Syracuse with winds of 20-25 mph early Thursday morning. However, we’ve gotten a few reports of gusts past 40 mph over higher elevations of central New York. As we head into the middle of day we will be entering our period of strongest winds. We still think sustained winds of 20-40 mph are likely during this time.
Meanwhile, a cold front moving through the middle part of the country yesterday and last night meant dozen reports of severe weather and even 21 tornadoes. As the front gets closer this afternoon to central New York we think there could be a few thunderstorms here. Winds aloft are very strong so we think there could be some pockets of winds to 50 mph this afternoon from any thunderstorm.
There are a couple of reasons, though, why we think widespread severe weather is not likely for central New York. First, we should stay cloudy for the day which will limit our chance to warm. We currently think that we will get to the mid to upper 60s. To get the type of widespread severe weather like in the Midwest yesterday we would need 70s and 80s. This will limit the instability in the atmosphere and, in turn, the chance for thunderstorms to grow.
Secondly, a strong disturbance in the jet stream winds aloft is tracking across the Great Lakes helping to fuel some of these storms. This disturbance looks like it will turn more northeast this afternoon and move more across southern Ontario province.
Actually, our weather should quickly improve this evening. The wind should SLOWLY decrease and the rain should quickly shift to our. What a difference tomorrow will bring: sunshine, dry weather and much less wind!
