An area of high pressure (the center of a large, dry air mass) moves right over Central New York by Friday morning. Light winds and dry air associated with this high, will keep our weather tranquil and picture perfect as we slide from Spring to Summer the end of this week. Almost as if on cue, temperatures will warm significantly over the weekend and through the first part of next week.
We expect temperatures to climb well into the 80s by the weekend, with a modest increase in humidity. With this new airmass building over us, we need to start looking closely at our chances for showers and thunderstorms. This is a difficult task so far out in the forecast period. However, there appears to be one or possibly two warm fronts that may impact the region this upcoming weekend. Trying to pinpoint when our best chance for any thunderstorms during this time hinges on the movement of smaller, jet stream disturbances. Some of these disturbances are caused by thunderstorm complexes and won’t even form until later in this week, thus it’s difficult (if not impossible) to get more detailed than to call for ‘scattered thunderstorms’ at this point. As the week unfolds, we will gradually gain better knowledge of the prospect for thunderstorms this weekend into early next week.
After this weekend, it looks any warm front(s) will be to our north and we should be solidly in a hot summer-like air mass. High temperatures could be pushing into the 90s for several days. Should there be three straight days of 90 degrees or higher, it will then become a heat wave. However, let’s not get ahead of ourselves and see how things unfold over the coming days.