We’ve been under the influence of a dry and seasonably warm air mass the last couple of days but things will change this weekend. We are watching a hot and humid air mass building in the middle of the country and it will move into the Northeast and central New York over the next couple of days.
As mentioned in earlier discussions, without a large scale system to hang our hats on like a front or low pressure system, it can be tough trying to decide on which days are the best for scattered thunderstorms. Here is our latest best idea. We are current watching a weakening area of thunderstorms moving across the western Great Lakes. These thunderstorms spun up a disturbance in the jet stream winds aloft. This disturbance will pass just to the north of central New York Saturday. For this reason, we think the best chance for a scattered thunderstorm Saturday will come from Syracuse northward.
The next significant disturbance will approach from the south and drift across the southern part of New York state. With this feature moving close by, we are going to bring the chances for thunderstorms up similar to Saturday (30%).
After Monday, our summery pattern conditions with hot and humid conditions (temperatures near 90 degrees) will continue through the middle of the week with again the chance for scattered thunderstorms each day.
Toward the end of the upcoming week, a cold front will approach central New York from the northwest. By Friday, our chances for showers and thunderstorms increase and we get ready for a change in air masses.