Central New York is locked into a very warm and humid air mass as we start out the week. In this pattern, with the lack of a frontal system nearby, we need to focus on weaker, jet stream disturbances as well as daytime heating, to get storms going. One such disturbance coincided with daytime heating Monday to produce scattered storms. As temperatures warm to near 90 again Tuesday, more thunderstorms are likely to develop in the heat of the afternoon.
This trend of small upper level disturbances will be rather persistent through the week. Given that these are not synoptic, or large scale, systems, it is tricky to pin point exactly the time and place that showers will take place. Nearly every day has a 30-40% chance for showers and storms.
Toward the end of the upcoming week, a cold front will approach central New York from the northwest. By Friday, the humidity will drop a bit, but we still won’t be able to shake the chance for an afternoon thunderstorm through the weekend.