A very warm and humid air mass will remain over Central New York for the next 24 hours or so. This warm and humid air mass is fuel for showers and thunderstorms, especially this afternoon.
Additionally, there remains a shallow and somewhat diffuse frontal boundary over the region. This boundary will serve, much like yesterday, as a focal point for showers and thunderstorms.
High resolutions computer models indicate this boundary will continue to lift north with time this afternoon. However, at the same time, partial sun will help energize and prime the atmosphere for showers and thunderstorms. Thunderstorms near and along this boundary may be enhanced, or stronger than otherwise, due to changing wind directions.
There is some evidence that once the boundary finally lifts north, additional showers and thunderstorms will be possible toward and after sunset. Any thunderstorms that form today have the potential of producing damaging wind gusts, hail, torrential downpours and frequent lightning. The bottom line is there could be several round of showers and thunderstorms through the afternoon and evening across central New York.
A strong cold front is forecast to sweep east and through the region tomorrow. This front will result in more widespread showers and thunderstorms. However, behind the front sharply cooler air will arrive by Thursday evening. Consequently, high temperatures Friday will likely stay in the 50s, or nearly 30 degrees cooler than the high temperatures of late.
The cold front will move off to our east by Friday, however, showers may linger as a second push of colder attempts to move through the region. Ultimately, sharply cooler air will usher for the start of the holiday weekend. We think temperatures will average below normal for the 3 day weekend. While the air will be cool, it will also be dry. That’ll mean a wealth of sunshine for the weekend as well.